Electric Bus Market o Grow Over 16.6% through 2025

January 21 11:51 2020
Electric Bus Market o Grow Over 16.6% through 2025

Electric Bus Market Research Report by P&S Intelligence
Environmental Concerns Driving Electric Bus Market

The rising concern over the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG), improving battery cost and efficiency, surging replacement sales, and long-term cost benefits are increasing the usage of electric buses. During 2018–2025, the electric bus market is expected to advance at a CAGR of 16.6% and witness the sale of 331,327 vehicles by 2025. The primary source of motive power of such buses is electricity, which is why they are considerably cleaner than traditional models, which burn diesel or compressed natural gas (CNG) inside their internal combustion engine (ICE).

When segmented by vehicle type, hybrid electric bus (HEB), battery electric bus (BEB), and plug-in hybrid electric bus (PHEB) are the various market categories. In 2017, the electric bus market was dominated by BEBs, which held an over 75.0% share, in terms of sales volume. This is attributed to the fact that due to the absence of an ICE, such vehicles produce no emissions, operationally. This is why, in several countries, government subsidies are higher for BEBs compared to HEBs and PHEBs.

On the basis of battery, the electric bus market is divided into lithium–iron phosphate (LFP), lithium­–nickel–manganese–cobalt oxide (NMC), and others. Among these, LFP was the largest division in 2017, with a volume share of over 78.0%, due to the higher safety and better cost-effectiveness of such batteries compared to NMC and other variants. The heavy usage of lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries in such vehicles is owing to their reducing costs, which is a key market driver.

As per industry stalwarts, Li-ion battery prices for bulk orders, which were around $642/kWh in 2012, slumped to approximately $209/kWh in 2017. Because the battery price accounts for about 40% of an electric bus’s purchase cost, this decline would help automakers keep their price competitive. Additionally, technological advancements are also resulting in an improving battery efficiency, mainly in terms of the storage capacity. This is being done by increasing their energy density, while lowering the dependence on cobalt, which is an expensive raw material.

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Another key factor driving the growth of the electric bus market is the long-term cost benefits of such vehicles. Though they are costlier to purchase than conventional models, their operational costs are significantly lower. The main reason behind it is that as these use no (BEB) or less amount of (PHEBs and HEBs) fossil fuel, they result in huge cost savings for operators. As per Indian Infrastructure Publishing, an electric bus, during its lifetime, saves $365,000 for those operating a diesel buses and $225,000 for those operating a CNG bus.

The rising adoption of e-buses in developing countries is offering immense growth opportunities to the market players. This is owed to the rapid urbanization in such countries; as per World Bank, 86% of Brazilians and 34% of all Indians were living in urban areas in 2017. This, along with the rising disposable income, is leading to the increasing vehicle ownership rate, and in turn, surging pollution levels. This is why governments of such countries are strongly encouraging clean transport and urging people to switch to public transport modes, including buses.

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Asia-Pacific (APAC) led the electric bus market in 2017, with a volume share of over 95.0%. This was majorly due to the heavy usage of such vehicles in China, where the problem of air pollution is quite grave. To tackle the issue, the national government has set stringent targets to reduce carbon emissions and replace fossil fuel buses with electric variants, and subsidies and incentives are also being offered to achieve these goals. Even during the forecast period, the APAC region would witness the highest sales of electric buses.

Thus, with the growing pollution levels and decreasing bus prices, the market would continue prospering.

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